The Good Friday Agreement contained a series of constructive ambiguities which were critical to ensuring that it received broad cross-political support. These ambiguities were reflective of the balance of political power of the time. Once institutionalized, they contained an immanent potential to morph in to structural contradictions as the re-balancing of demographic and political power in Ireland moved from latent to manifest status. As the Agreement reaches its 25^th anniversary, three outstanding structural contradictions are manifesting, prompted by Brexit and the re-introduction of the ‘Irish question’ in to Irish-British relations. The constitutional status of the North of Ireland, the raison d’etre of statelet, and the inability of the governing institutions to function representationally or effectively have co-joined with a new balance of political power favoring Irish nationalism over Ulster unionism. Consequently, whether or not we are witnessing the twilight of the Good Friday Agreement will be contingent upon the short-medium term political decisions of key political actors, most notably, Ulster unionism. Three probable future developments will be further stasis, institutional reform, or (r)evolutionary constitutional change.

《耶稣受难日协议》包含一系列建设性的模糊性，这对于确保其获得广泛的跨政治支持至关重要。这些模糊性反映了当时政治权力的平衡。一旦制度化，随着爱尔兰人口和政治权力的重新平衡从潜在状态转向明显状态，它们就具有演变成结构性矛盾的内在潜力。协议签署25周年之际^，英国脱欧和“爱尔兰问题”重新引入爱英关系，三大结构性矛盾凸显。北爱尔兰的宪法地位，存在的理由的小国，以及管理机构无法代表性或有效地运作，与新的政治权力平衡相结合，有利于爱尔兰民族主义而不是阿尔斯特工会主义。因此，我们是否正在见证《耶稣受难日协议》的黄昏，将取决于主要政治参与者（尤其是阿尔斯特工会主义）的中短期政治决定。未来三个可能的发展将是进一步的停滞、机构改革或革命性的宪法变革。