ABSTRACT

A country cannot simultaneously have an independent monetary policy, fixed exchange rate and freely mobile capital. This paper uses data from 10 Asian economies in recent years to investigate the macroeconomic trilemma. It makes special reference to the role of exchange rate regimes, capital controls, economic crisis, and international reserve holdings to analyse how interest rate changes in the centre country affect peripheral countries’ interest rates. The main findings support the existence of a macroeconomic trilemma. Moreover, we find that international reserves help to provide monetary autonomy with a buffer even under a fixed exchange rate and free capital mobility regime.

摘要

一个国家不可能同时拥有独立的货币政策、固定汇率和自由流动的资本。本文利用亚洲10个经济体近年来的数据来探讨宏观经济的三难困境。它特别参考汇率制度、资本管制、经济危机和国际储备持有的作用来分析中心国家的利率变化如何影响外围国家的利率。主要发现支持宏观经济三难困境的存在。此外，我们发现，即使在固定汇率和资本自由流动制度下，国际储备也有助于为货币自主提供缓冲。