In an earlier paper from 2019, this author concluded that successful eradication of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) from Ireland by 2030 would be unlikely, given control strategies in place at that time plus the addition of badger vaccination. He argued that additional measures will be needed, broadly focusing on bTB risks from wildlife, risk-based cattle controls, and industry commitment. This paper considers these points in further detail. Ongoing monitoring of the badger vaccination programme (which is progressively being rolled out nationally) and associated research will be critical, with a focus both on programme inputs and outcomes. The direct contribution of cattle movements to bTB restrictions in Ireland has been evaluated. However, it is the indirect role of cattle movements in bTB restrictions that is likely of greater importance, particularly towards the latter phase of the eradication programme. In other national programmes, a range of risk-based approaches have been used to address the challenge of residual infection in cattle (that is, the presence of animals with persistent but undetected infection), and similar approaches are needed in Ireland. A number of authors have highlighted the critical importance of industry commitment to programme success, and the key role of programme governance to achieving this. In this commentary, the author briefly considers experiences from Australia and New Zealand in this regard. The author also reflects on the challenge of uncertainty in decision-making, the relevance to Ireland of lessons from other countries, and the potential contribution of new methodologies in support of the national programme. ‘The tragedy of the horizon’ was a term first used in the context of climate change, referring to the costs imposed on future generations that the current generation has no direct incentives to fix. This concept is equally relevant to bTB eradication in Ireland, where current decisions will have long-term consequences for future generations, including both the general public (through the Exchequer) and future Irish farmers.

中文翻译：

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爱尔兰根除结核病：下一步该何去何从？

在 2019 年的一篇早期论文中，作者得出的结论是，鉴于当时采取的控制策略以及獾疫苗接种的增加，到 2030 年爱尔兰不太可能成功根除牛结核病 (bTB)。他认为还需要采取更多措施，主要关注野生动物带来的 bTB 风险、基于风险的牛控制和行业承诺。本文更详细地考虑了这些要点。对獾疫苗接种计划（正在全国范围内逐步推广）和相关研究的持续监测至关重要，重点关注计划的投入和结果。牛群流动对爱尔兰 bTB 限制的直接影响已得到评估。然而，牛群运输在 bTB 限制中的间接作用可能更为重要，特别是在根除计划的最后阶段。在其他国家计划中，已采用一系列基于风险的方法来解决牛体内残留感染的挑战（即存在持续但未被发现的感染的动物），爱尔兰也需要类似的方法。许多作者强调了行业承诺对项目成功的至关重要性，以及项目治理在实现这一目标方面的关键作用。在这篇评论中，作者简要回顾了澳大利亚和新西兰在这方面的经验。作者还反思了决策中不确定性的挑战、其他国家的经验教训与爱尔兰的相关性，以及支持国家计划的新方法的潜在贡献。“地平线的悲剧”这个术语首次在气候变化背景下使用，指的是给子孙后代带来的成本，而当代人没有直接的动力去解决。这一概念与爱尔兰的 bTB 根除同样相关，当前的决定将对子孙后代产生长期影响，包括公众（通过财政部）和未来的爱尔兰农民。