What are the economic consequences of geopolitical fragmentation on trade? We answer this question by using a canonical general equilibrium trade model to quantify the trade and welfare effects stemming from world trade fragmentation along geopolitical borders. To calibrate the size of the increase in trade costs, we use a new aggregate measure of trade restrictions that spans over the last 70 years and includes up to 157 countries and estimate the impact on trade of very broad trade policy restrictions in a theory-consistent structural gravity framework. We estimate that a fragmentation into three different trade blocs (Western, Eastern, Neutral)—defined according to how countries voted on the suspension of the rights of membership of the Russian Federation in the United Nations Human Rights Council because of the invasion of Ukraine— would have important effects on trade between them, reducing trade flows by 22%–57%, in the most extreme scenarios. Welfare losses would be the largest in the Eastern bloc, where the median country would experience a welfare loss of up to 3.4%.

地缘政治分裂对贸易有何经济后果？我们通过使用典型的一般均衡贸易模型来量化世界贸易沿地缘政治边界的碎片化所产生的贸易和福利影响来回答这个问题。为了校准贸易成本增加的规模，我们使用了过去 70 年涵盖多达 157 个国家的新的贸易限制总体衡量标准，并以理论一致的方式估计了非常广泛的贸易政策限制对贸易的影响。结构重力框架。我们估计，分裂成三个不同的贸易集团（西方、东方、中立）——根据各国如何投票决定因入侵乌克兰而暂停俄罗斯联邦在联合国人权理事会的成员资格——将对它们之间的贸易产生重要影响，在最极端的情况下，贸易流量会减少 22%–57%。东欧集团的福利损失最大，其中中位国家的福利损失将高达 3.4%。