Purpose

Current evidence suggests volatile temperatures are becoming more common because of climate change and can be expected to become even more frequent in the future. By focusing on recent temperature variability, we attempt to estimate one important dimension of climate change's impact on violent crime by exploring associations between sudden temperature swings and the incidence of violence. We also explore whether sudden upward temperature anomalies have stronger positive impacts on violent crime in the coldest months of the year due to routine activities changes.

Methods

This study explores the association between sudden temperature anomalies (both upward and downward) and the daily incidence of homicide, robbery, and aggravated assault in 28 U.S. cities from 2015 to 2021 using multivariable two-way fixed-effects negative binomial panel regression models.

Results

We find temperature volatility is significantly associated with the incidence of violence. Upward departures in temperature are associated with increases in robbery and homicide, while downward departures are associated in the opposite direction. These associations are more robust in winter, with unexpectedly warmer winter weather associated with larger increases in robbery.

Conclusions

Results support the hypotheses and routine activities theory. We discuss the findings in the context of under-explored criminological consequences of climate change.

中文翻译：

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人类世的怪异冬季天气：不稳定的气温如何塑造暴力犯罪

目的

目前的证据表明，由于气候变化，气温波动变得越来越普遍，并且预计未来会变得更加频繁。通过关注最近的气温变化，我们试图通过探索气温突然波动与暴力发生率之间的关联来估计气候变化对暴力犯罪影响的一个重要方面。我们还探讨了由于日常活动的变化，气温突然升高异常是否会对一年中最冷月份的暴力犯罪产生更强的积极影响。

方法

本研究使用多变量双向固定效应负二项式面板回归模型，探讨了 2015 年至 2021 年美国 28 个城市突发气温异常（向上和向下）与凶杀、抢劫和严重袭击的每日发生率之间的关联。

结果

我们发现温度波动与暴力发生率显着相关。温度的上升与抢劫和凶杀案的增加相关，而温度的下降则与相反的方向相关。这些关联在冬季更为明显，出人意料的温暖冬季天气与抢劫案的大幅增加相关。

结论

结果支持假设和日常活动理论。我们在气候变化的犯罪学后果尚未充分探索的背景下讨论这些发现。