Climate change is expected to impact individuals' recreational choices, as changing temperatures and precipitation patterns influence participation in outdoor recreation and alternative activities. This paper empirically investigates the relationship between weather and outdoor recreation using nationally representative data from the contiguous United States. We find that across most outdoor recreational activities, participation is lowest on the coldest days (<35 degrees Fahrenheit) and highest at moderately high temperatures (80 to 90 degrees). Notable exceptions to this trend include water sports and snow and ice sports, for which participation peaks at the highest and lowest temperatures, respectively. If individuals continue to respond to temperature changes the same way that they have in the recent past, in a future climate that has fewer cool days and more moderate and hot days, our model anticipates net participation across all outdoor recreation activities will increase by 88 million trips annually at 1 degree Celsius of warming (CONUS) and up to 401 million trips at 6 degrees of warming, valued between $3.2 billion and $15.6 billion in consumer surplus annually (2010 population). The increase in trips is driven by participation in water sports; excluding water sports from future projections decreases the consumer surplus gains by approximately 75 percent across all modeled degrees of warming. If individuals in northern regions respond to temperature like people in southern regions currently do (a proxy for adaptation), total outdoor recreation trips will increase by an additional 17 percent compared to no adaptation at 6 degrees of warming. This benefit is generally not seen at lower degrees of warming.

中文翻译：

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气候变化对美国户外休闲参与的影响：21 世纪的预测。

气候变化预计将影响个人的娱乐选择，因为温度和降水模式的变化会影响户外娱乐和替代活动的参与。本文利用美国本土的全国代表性数据，实证研究了天气与户外休闲之间的关系。我们发现，在大多数户外休闲活动中，参与度在最冷的日子（<35 华氏度）最低，而在中等高温（80 至 90 度）时最高。这一趋势的显着例外包括水上运动和冰雪运动，它们的参与率分别在最高和最低温度时达到顶峰。如果人们继续像最近一样对温度变化做出反应，在未来凉爽天气减少、温和炎热天气增多的情况下，我们的模型预计，如果气温升高 1 摄氏度 (CONUS)，所有户外休闲活动的净参与量每年将增加 8800 万次；如果气温升高 6 度，则将增加 4.01 亿次，每年消费者剩余价值将在 32 亿美元到 156 亿美元之间（2010 年人口）。水上运动的参与推动了出行次数的增加；将水上运动排除在未来预测之外，在所有模拟的变暖程度中，消费者剩余收益将减少约 75%。如果北方地区的人们像南方地区的人们目前那样对温度做出反应（适应的代表），那么在升温 6 度的情况下，与没有适应的情况相比，户外休闲旅行总量将额外增加 17%。