Climate change will impact environments globally. These changes, however, can affect species or regions differently. The upward limitation of high-mountain species suggests these are especially prone to the effects of climate change. We assess the impact of future climate scenarios on high-mountain species' suitable climatic niches. We gathered 1351 occurrence records of high-mountain (>2000 m asl) squamates and assessed species distribution models for those species occupying more than 10 unique grid-cells. Afterwards, for each species we ensemble climatic-niche suitability models for historic (1981–2010) and future climate scenarios (2011–2040, 2041–2070, 2071–2100) for two representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6 and 8.5). We identified 252 high-elevation squamate species that occur in Africa, Asia, North America and South America. When we examined species distribution models for the 17 lizard species occupying more than 10 unique grid-cells, we found a consistent negative effect of future climate change on suitable climatic-niche models: we inferred species' climatic-niche losses for 16 species and species' climatic-niche gains for 1 species. Regardless of future scenarios, two species of lizards will likely lose at least 80% of their suitable climatic niche, and seven species will likely see their suitable climatic niche completely disappear. Climate change will likely have a negative impact on species' suitable climatic-niche availability. High altitude and associated environmental factors may accelerate local extinctions of mountain reptiles. We highlight the importance of identifying high-risk species for better conservation efforts.

中文翻译：

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高山蜥蜴的潜在持久性

气候变化将影响全球环境。然而，这些变化会对物种或地区产生不同的影响。高山物种的向上限制表明它们特别容易受到气候变化的影响。我们评估未来气候情景对高山物种适宜气候生态位的影响。我们收集了 1351 个高山（>2000 m asl）鳞状动物的出现记录，并评估了占据 10 多个独特网格单元的物种的物种分布模型。然后，对于每个物种，我们针对历史（1981-2010）和未来气候情景（2011-2040、2041-2070、2071-2100）建立了两个代表性浓度路径（RCP 2.6和8.5）的气候生态位适宜性模型。我们鉴定了 252 种分布在非洲、亚洲、北美洲和南美洲的高海拔有鳞动物物种。当我们检查占据超过 10 个独特网格单元的 17 种蜥蜴物种的物种分布模型时，我们发现未来气候变化对合适的气候生态位模型存在一致的负面影响：我们推断了 16 个物种和物种的气候生态位损失' 1 个物种的气候生态位增益。无论未来的情况如何，两种蜥蜴可能会失去至少 80% 的适宜气候生态位，七种蜥蜴的适宜气候生态位可能会完全消失。气候变化可能会对物种的适宜气候生态位可用性产生负面影响。高海拔和相关的环境因素可能会加速山地爬行动物的局部灭绝。我们强调识别高风险物种对于更好地保护工作的重要性。