An increasing number of household and firm surveys ask for subjective probabilities that the inflation rate falls into various outcome ranges. We provide a new measure of the uncertainty implicit in such probabilities. The measure has several advantages over existing methods: It is robust, trivial to implement, requires no functional form assumptions, and is well-defined for all logically possible probabilities. These advantages are particularly relevant when analyzing microdata from extensive consumer surveys. We illustrate the new measure using data from the Survey of Consumer Expectations.

中文翻译：

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量化调查预期的主观不确定性

越来越多的家庭和企业调查要求提供通货膨胀率落入不同结果范围的主观概率。我们提供了一种新的衡量此类概率中隐含的不确定性的方法。与现有方法相比，该度量有几个优点：它稳健、易于实现、不需要函数形式假设，并且对所有逻辑上可能的概率都有明确的定义。在分析广泛的消费者调查的微观数据时，这些优势尤其重要。我们使用消费者期望调查的数据来说明这项新措施。