This study examines the nexus between oil prices (Oil) and economic output (IIP) asymmetrically in the Indian context using quarterly data from 1996–1997:Q1 to 2019–2020:Q4. To this end, we have used a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model. The main findings of the study are as follows—firstly, the Wald test confirms the nonlinearities among the negative and positive shocks in Oil, EX and IR in the long run. Secondly, the NARDL model reveals that negative shock in oil price stimulate the IIP, whereas positive shock in Oil fails to influence IIP. The positive shock in EX strengthens the Indian economy by having a positive and significant impact on IIP, while the negative shock in EX is insignificant. The positive and negative shocks in IR negatively impact IIP in the long run. The study demonstrates that Oil, EX and IR exert asymmetric pressure on IIP in the long run. Concisely, India's economic output is more responsive to oil prices decrease than oil prices increase. Therefore, the asymmetric oil prices-economic output nexus has substantial policy implications, particularly for prudent energy policy in India.

中文翻译：

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油价对印度经济产出的影响是否不对称？使用不对称协整方法的经验证据

本研究使用 1996-1997 年第一季度到 2019-2020 年第四季度的季度数据，研究了印度背景下石油价格 ( Oil ) 与经济产出 ( IIP ) 之间的不对称关系。为此，我们使用了非线性自回归分布滞后（NARDL）模型。研究的主要发现如下：首先，Wald检验证实了石油、EX和IR的长期负面冲击和正面冲击之间的非线性关系。其次，NARDL模型显示，油价的负面冲击会刺激IIP ，而石油价格的正面冲击则不会影响IIP。EX的正向冲击对IIP产生积极且重大的影响，从而增强了印度经济，而EX的负向冲击则微不足道。从长远来看，IR的正面和负面冲击会对IIP产生负面影响。研究表明，从长远来看，石油、EX和IR对IIP施加不对称压力。简而言之，印度经济产出对油价下跌的反应比对油价上涨的反应更大。因此，不对称的油价与经济产出关系具有重大的政策影响，特别是对于印度审慎的能源政策。