Scarcity and growth analyses about energy include forecasting extraction rates of non-renewable resources while taking into account technological progression. One mechanism, Moore's (1965) Law of technological improvement, encompasses experience enhanced steady cost reductions. Alternatively, synthesis technological change refers to unforeseen innovative breakthroughs. These trends relate to the Hubbert (1956, 1962) Curve of U.S shale oil extraction in the U.S. Lower 48 contiguous states. Price effects, drilling rigs and the price-to-drilling rig relationship are analyzed. Results show we are at peak U.S. shale oil, and could experience comprehensive decline. This implies Catton's (1982) “Age of Exuberance,” and “Carrying Capacity” drawdown.

中文翻译：

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美国页岩油产量和趋势估计：预测 Hubbert 模型


关于能源的稀缺性和增长分析包括预测不可再生资源的开采率，同时考虑技术进步。一种机制是摩尔（1965）技术改进定律，它包含经验增强的稳定成本降低。或者，合成技术变革是指不可预见的创新突破。这些趋势与美国本土 48 个州的页岩油开采的 Hubbert (1956, 1962) 曲线相关。分析了价格影响、钻机以及价格与钻机的关系。结果显示，美国页岩油正处于峰值，并且可能会经历全面下滑。这意味着卡顿（1982）的“繁荣时代”和“承载能力”缩减。