Abstract

A range of issues related to the results of the analysis of some meteorological and solar series of satellite observations in the Kara-Dag area (Crimea) is considered. A qualitative and quantitative picture of changes in the total insolation falling on the Earth’s surface, air temperature at a height of 2 m, and the Earth’s surface temperature in Kara-Dag over the past 38 years is presented. A numerical model has been constructed that makes it possible to predict the most powerful fluctuation with a period of 1 year in the analyzed data. The following methods were used in the work: the method of wavelet analysis, statistical methods for extracting Gaussian and non-Gaussian noise, an iterative method for constructing and estimating the accuracy of model approximations. Coherent variations in the analyzed and some global geodynamic and solar time series were established using two-channel autoregressive analysis. A qualitative characteristic of the process of changing the main variations in the analyzed time series was obtained using the analysis of phase trajectories on the Poincaré plane.

中文翻译：

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空间观测时间序列：当地气象和太阳序列分析

摘要

考虑了与卡拉达格地区（克里米亚）一些气象和太阳系列卫星观测结果分析结果相关的一系列问题。展示了过去 38 年中落在地球表面的总日照量、2 m 高度的气温以及卡拉达格地球表面温度的定性和定量变化图。已经构建了一个数值模型，可以预测分析数据中一年内最强烈的波动。工作中使用了以下方法：小波分析方法、提取高斯和非高斯噪声的统计方法、构建和估计模型近似精度的迭代方法。使用双通道自回归分析建立了所分析的以及一些全球地球动力学和太阳时间序列的相干变化。通过对庞加莱平面上的相位轨迹进行分析，获得了所分析的时间序列中主要变化的变化过程的定性特征。