How was life expectancy in Iran affected by the Islamic Revolution and subsequent war with Iraq? This study examines the joint effect of regime change and the war against Iraq on life expectancy in Iran between 1978 and 1988. If there had been no revolution and war in Iran, how would the life expectancy of Iranians have developed? To answer this question, we use a synthetic control model to construct a counterfactual Iran based on a weighted average of other comparable countries, which reproduces the situation of pre-revolution Iran but does not experience the revolution and war. We then compare the life expectancies of the counterfactual and actual Iran that underwent a regime change and war with Iraq. Our results indicate that an average Iranian's total life expectancy would have been approximately five years longer without the revolution and war. The revolution had a moderate long-term impact on total life expectancy at birth, with the most significant influence being attributed to the war itself, particularly on male life expectancy. Our main findings are robust to a series of tests, including placebo tests. We investigate possible reasons that may explain the impact on longevity.

中文翻译：

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伊朗因革命和战争而失去生命的岁月

伊朗的预期寿命如何受到伊斯兰革命和随后的伊拉克战争的影响？本研究探讨了 1978 年至 1988 年间政权更迭和伊拉克战争对伊朗预期寿命的共同影响。如果伊朗没有革命和战争，伊朗人的预期寿命会如何发展？为了回答这个问题，我们使用综合控制模型，根据其他可比国家的加权平均值构建了一个反事实的伊朗，它再现了革命前伊朗的情况，但没有经历革命和战争。然后，我们比较了经历政权更迭和与伊拉克战争的反事实伊朗和实际伊朗的预期寿命。我们的研究结果表明，如果没有革命和战争，伊朗人的平均总预期寿命会延长大约五年。革命对出生时的总预期寿命产生了适度的长期影响，其中最显着的影响归因于战争本身，特别是对男性预期寿命的影响。我们的主要发现对于一系列测试（包括安慰剂测试）来说是稳健的。我们调查可能的原因来解释对寿命的影响。