We propose a statistical emulator for a climate-economy deterministic integrated assessment model ensemble, based on a functional regression framework. Inference on the unknown parameters is carried out through a mixed effects hierarchical model using a fully Bayesian framework with a prior distribution on the vector of all parameters. We also suggest an autoregressive parameterization of the covariance matrix of the error, with matching marginal prior. In this way, we allow for a functional framework for the discretized output of the simulators that allows their time continuous evaluation.

中文翻译：

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未来气候变化情景下二氧化碳排放的贝叶斯函数模拟

我们提出了一个基于功能回归框架的气候经济确定性综合评估模型集合的统计模拟器。对未知参数的推断是通过混合效应分层模型进行的，该模型使用完全贝叶斯框架，并在所有参数的向量上具有先验分布。我们还建议对误差的协方差矩阵进行自回归参数化，并匹配边际先验。通过这种方式，我们为模拟器的离散输出提供了一个功能框架，允许它们进行时间连续评估。