On March 23, 2021, Illinois imposed an all-in rate cap of 36% APR. We use credit bureau data for Illinois and its neighboring state, Missouri, a state without any legislated interest-rate cap, to estimate the effects of the Illinois rate cap on unsecured installment loans. Using difference-in-differences-in-differences estimation, we find that the interest-rate cap decreased the number of loans to subprime borrowers by 38% and increased the average loan size to subprime borrowers by 35%. Responses to a survey of small-dollar-credit borrowers in Illinois who lost credit access suggest the interest-rate cap worsened the financial well-being of many of these borrowers. Legislators motivated by genuine public interest rationales might not recognize the harmful consequences of their actions for these higher-risk borrowers with few credit alternatives. Legislators might also be motivated by the benefits of the interest-rate cap for lower-risk borrowers. The interest-rate cap increased the number of loans to prime borrowers by 16% and the average loan size to prime borrowers by 7%.

2021 年 3 月 23 日，伊利诺伊州实行 36% 年利率的总利率上限。我们使用伊利诺伊州及其邻近州密苏里州（该州没有任何法定利率上限）的信用局数据来估计伊利诺伊州利率上限对无担保分期贷款的影响。使用双重差分估计，我们发现利率上限使次级贷款借款人的贷款数量减少了 38%，并使次级贷款借款人的平均贷款规模增加了 35%。对伊利诺伊州失去信贷渠道的小额信贷借款人的调查显示，利率上限恶化了许多借款人的财务状况。出于真正公共利益的动机，立法者可能不会认识到他们的行为对这些信用选择很少的高风险借款人造成的有害后果。立法者也可能受到利率上限为低风险借款人带来的好处的激励。利率上限使优质借款人的贷款数量增加了 16%，优质借款人的平均贷款规模增加了 7%。