This paper investigates changes in political participation following a disaster. Drawing on the electoral results and flood declarations after the 2010 flood in Slovakia, a dataset was constructed that illustrates when and how often each municipality was affected by disastrous conditions before the elections. The analysis revealed that experiencing a flood significantly increased the level of political participation in a municipality. However, the effect of flooding on elections is conditional. First, significantly higher turnout occurs only when a flood affects the municipality on election day. Second, repeated flooding before the elections does not change the overall participation rate. In contrast, it is the one-time, continuous extreme weather event that most mobilises voters. Third, only severely affected municipalities demonstrated a significant turnout effect. Lastly, the timing variable is crucial in determining the impact of repetition and severity. This paper distinguishes between different kinds of flood events that can influence disaster behaviour.

中文翻译：

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有动力投票吗？洪水对政治参与的影响

本文调查了灾难后政治参与的变化。根据 2010 年斯洛伐克洪水后的选举结果和洪水声明，构建了一个数据集，说明了选举前每个城市受到灾难性条件影响的时间和频率。分析显示，经历洪水显着提高了城市的政治参与水平。然而，洪水对选举的影响是有条件的。首先，只有当选举日洪水影响市政当局时，投票率才会显着提高。其次，选举前反复发生的洪水并没有改变总体参与率。相比之下，最能动员选民的是一次性、持续的极端天气事件。第三，只有受影响严重的城市才表现出显着的投票率效应。最后，时间变量对于确定重复和严重程度的影响至关重要。本文区分了可能影响灾害行为的不同类型的洪水事件。