A prototype OpenMetBuoy (OMB) was deployed alongside a commercial buoy in the central Arctic Ocean, north of the Laptev Sea, where there are historically no wave observations available. The inter-buoy comparison showed that the OMB measured wave heights and periods accurately, so the buoy data were used to study the predictability of a wave–ice model. The first event we studied was when both buoys observed a sudden decrease in significant wave heights H_m0, which was caused by the change of wind directions from along the ice edge to off-ice wind. The Arctic Ocean Wave Analysis and Forecast wave–ice model product (ARC MFC) underestimated the H_m0 on the account of the fetch being constrained by the inaccurate model representation of an ice tongue. The second case was an on-ice wave event as new ice formed. In this instance, the ARC MFC wave–ice model product largely underestimated the downwind buoy H_m0. Model sea-ice conditions were examined by comparing the ARC MFC sea-ice forcing with the neXtSIM sea-ice model product, and our analysis revealed the ARC MFC did not resolve thin ice thickness distribution for ice types like young and grey ice, typically less than 30 cm. The ARC MFC model’s wave dissipation rate has a sea-ice thickness dependence and overestimated wave dissipation in thin ice cover; sea-ice forcing that can resolve the thin thickness distribution is needed to improve the predictability. This study provides an observational insight into better predictions of waves in marginal ice zones when new ice forms.

原型 OpenMetBuoy (OMB) 部署在拉普捷夫海北部北冰洋中部的一个商业浮标旁边，该地区历史上没有可用的波浪观测。浮标间比较表明OMB准确测量了波高和周期，因此浮标数据可用于研究波冰模型的可预测性。我们研究的第一个事件是两个浮标观察到有效波高H _{m 0}突然下降 ，这是由风向从冰边风向冰外风的变化引起的。北冰洋波浪分析和预报波冰模型产品 (ARC MFC) 低估了 H _{m 0} 由于冰舌的不准确模型表示限制了提取。第二个案例是新冰形成时的冰上波浪事件。在本例中，ARC MFC 波冰模型产品很大程度上低估了顺风浮标 H _{m 0}。通过将 ARC MFC 海冰强迫与 neXtSIM 海冰模型产品进行比较来检查模型海冰条件，我们的分析表明 ARC MFC 无法解决年轻冰和灰冰等冰类型的薄冰厚度分布，通常较小超过30厘米。ARC MFC模型的波耗散率具有海冰厚度依赖性，并且高估了薄冰盖中的波耗散；为了提高可预测性，需要能够解决薄厚度分布的海冰强迫。这项研究为新冰形成时边缘冰区波浪的更好预测提供了观测见解。