Previous studies have revealed little progress in the ensemble mean of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models compared to Phase 5 (CMIP5) models in simulating global dynamic sea level (DSL). This study investigates the performance of the CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensembles in simulating the spatial pattern and magnitude of DSL climatology, seasonal variability, interannual variability, and decadal variability by using the pattern correlation coefficient (PCC) and root-mean-square error (RMSE) as metrics. We show that the top models of the CMIP6 ensemble perform better than those of the CMIP5 ensemble in the simulation of DSL climatology and seasonal and interannual variability, but not DSL decadal variability. An intermodel linear relationship between the RMSE and PCC is found for both the CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensembles; however, this intermodel relationship is more linearly correlated in the CMIP6 ensemble and not significant for DSL decadal variability. The results show that the finer-horizontal resolution models tend to yield a smaller RMSE and a larger PCC in the DSL climatology, seasonal variability, interannual variability but not decadal variability simulations, and the relationship is more evident for the CMIP6 ensemble than for the CMIP5 ensemble.

中文翻译：

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评估 CMIP5 至 CMIP6 动态海平面模拟中的季节到年代际变化

先前的研究表明，在模拟全球动态海平面（DSL）方面，耦合模式比对项目第六阶段（CMIP6）模型与第五阶段（CMIP5）模型相比，集合平均值进展甚微。本研究通过使用模式相关系数 (PCC) 和均方根误差 (RMSE) 来研究 CMIP5 和 CMIP6 系综在模拟 DSL 气候学、季节变率、年际变率和年代际变率的空间格局和幅度方面的性能作为指标。我们表明，CMIP6 系综的顶级模型在 DSL 气候学以及季节和年际变率的模拟中比 CMIP5 系综的表现更好，但在 DSL 年代际变率的模拟中表现不佳。对于 CMIP5 和 CMIP6 系综，均发现 RMSE 和 PCC 之间存在模型间线性关系；然而，这种模型间关系在 CMIP6 系综中更线性相关，并且对于 DSL 年代际变化并不显着。结果表明，在 DSL 气候学、季节变率、年际变率而非年代际变率模拟中，更精细的水平分辨率模型往往会产生较小的 RMSE 和较大的 PCC，并且 CMIP6 系综的这种关系比 CMIP5 更明显合奏。