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Stopping problems with an unknown state
Journal of Applied Probability ( IF 1 ) Pub Date : 2023-08-09 , DOI: 10.1017/jpr.2023.52
Erik Ekström , Yuqiong Wang

We extend the classical setting of an optimal stopping problem under full information to include problems with an unknown state. The framework allows the unknown state to influence (i) the drift of the underlying process, (ii) the payoff functions, and (iii) the distribution of the time horizon. Since the stopper is assumed to observe the underlying process and the random horizon, this is a two-source learning problem. Assigning a prior distribution for the unknown state, standard filtering theory can be employed to embed the problem in a Markovian framework with one additional state variable representing the posterior of the unknown state. We provide a convenient formulation of this Markovian problem, based on a measure change technique that decouples the underlying process from the new state variable. Moreover, we show by means of several novel examples that this reduced formulation can be used to solve problems explicitly.



中文翻译:

停止未知状态的问题

我们将完整信息下最优停止问题的经典设置扩展到包括未知状态的问题。该框架允许未知状态影响(i)基础过程的漂移,(ii)收益函数,以及(iii)时间范围的分布。由于假设停止器观察底层过程和随机范围,因此这是一个双源学习问题。为未知状态分配先验分布,可以采用标准过滤理论将问题嵌入到马尔可夫框架中,并使用一个表示未知状态后验的附加状态变量。我们基于一种测量变化技术,为这个马尔可夫问题提供了一个方便的表述,该技术将底层过程与新的状态变量解耦。而且,
更新日期:2023-08-09
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