Fertility has declined in developed countries but whether there is a similar pattern in the number of children individuals wish to have (henceforth an ideal number of children) remains unclear. Using repeated cross-sectional survey data from the Finnish Family Barometers, we examine birth cohort changes in the ideal number of children among men and women from five birth cohorts (1970–1974, 1975–1979, 1980–1984, 1985–1989, and 1990–1994). We also investigate whether associations between socioeconomic factors and the ideal number of children differ across birth cohorts, and whether there are any gender differences in these associations. We find that the ideal number of children is lower among more recent than earlier birth cohorts and that this shift is driven by substantially higher child-free ideals among recent cohorts. While the ideal number of children among men and women is associated with socioeconomic factors, birth cohort differences remain significant after controlling for these characteristics. These findings suggest that large birth cohort differences in child-free ideals are not due to the individual socioeconomic circumstances of more recent birth cohorts. Rather, it appears that the childbearing attitudes of Finns have changed and may have contributed to the recent fertility decline.

中文翻译：

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生育理想的出生队列变化：芬兰重复横断面调查的证据

发达国家的生育率有所下降，但个人希望生育的孩子数量（以下称为理想孩子数量）是否存在类似模式仍不清楚。利用芬兰家庭晴雨表的重复横断面调查数据，我们研究了五个出生队列（1970-1974、1975-1979、1980-1984、1985-1989和1990-1994）。我们还调查了不同出生群体的社会经济因素与理想子女数量之间的关联是否存在差异，以及这些关联中是否存在性别差异。我们发现，最近出生的人群的理想子女数量低于较早出生的人群，而这种转变是由最近出生的人群中明显更高的无子女理想推动的。虽然男性和女性的理想子女数量与社会经济因素有关，但在控制这些特征后，出生队列差异仍然显着。这些发现表明，无子女理想中出生队列的巨大差异并不是由于最近出生队列的个体社会经济环境造成的。相反，芬兰人的生育态度似乎发生了变化，并可能导致了最近生育率的下降。