A health crisis can impact GVCs adversely by raising bilateral trade costs and via supply- and demand-side shocks in the exporting and importing countries. Focusing on trade in select GVC-intensive sectors, we disentangle the effects of these different channels in the context of SARS and MERS in a structural gravity framework. The estimated effects are found to be small in magnitude and show significant heterogeneity by sector, channel and disease outbreak. SARS-induced rise in bilateral trade costs is found to reduce the export value and number of products traded of both intermediate and final goods, while similar adverse effects from MERS are only observed on intermediate goods export value. There is more evidence for the adverse effects of supply-shocks from both SARS and MERS in our results, while the expected negative effects of the demand-shock are only observed for MERS. The SARS effects are found to diminish over time, pointing to resilience of the associated value-chains. We also find suggestive evidence for SARS in particular being associated with geographical diversification and widening of value-chains.

中文翻译：

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全球价值链贸易如何应对之前的健康冲击？来自 SARS 和 MERS 的证据

健康危机可能会提高双边贸易成本以及对出口国和进口国的供需双方造成冲击，从而对全球价值链产生不利影响。我们重点关注选定的全球价值链密集型行业的贸易，在结构性引力框架中理清了 SARS 和 MERS 背景下这些不同渠道的影响。发现估计的影响幅度较小，并且按部门、渠道和疾病爆发显示出显着的异质性。研究发现，SARS 引起的双边贸易成本上升会减少中间产品和最终产品的出口值和贸易产品数量，而 MERS 的类似不利影响仅对中间产品出口值产生影响。我们的结果中有更多证据表明 SARS 和 MERS 造成的供应冲击产生了不利影响，而需求冲击的预期负面影响仅在 MERS 中观察到。研究发现，SARS 的影响会随着时间的推移而减弱，这表明相关价值链具有弹性。我们还发现了 SARS 与地理多样化和价值链拓宽有关的提示性证据。