We examine whether police resignations and retirements significantly changed in the two years following public backlash related to the police murder of George Floyd. We employ Bayesian Structural Time Series to compare observed trends in each agency to synthetic counterfactuals using monthly staffing data from fourteen large municipal policing and sheriffs' agencies in the US. In the two years since the Floyd protests began, large metropolitan agencies have experienced significant increases in resignations, retirements, or both. One agency was unaffected, two saw small improvements, and eleven saw between 2.2% and 16% excess loss of sworn full-time personnel when compared to the synthetic counterfactual. These results reaffirm the importance of understanding how agency operational and personnel patterns have shifted since the summer of 2020.

我们研究了在公众强烈反对警察谋杀乔治·弗洛伊德之后的两年里，警察辞职和退休情况是否发生了显着变化。我们采用贝叶斯结构时间序列，使用美国十四个大型市政警察和警长机构的月度人员配备数据，将每个机构观察到的趋势与合成反事实进行比较。自弗洛伊德抗议活动开始以来的两年里，大型都市机构的辞职、退休或两者兼而有之的人数大幅增加。与合成反事实相比，1 个机构未受影响，2 个机构略有改善，11 个机构的宣誓全职人员流失量在 2.2% 至 16% 之间。这些结果重申了了解自 2020 年夏季以来机构运营和人员模式如何变化的重要性。