Using a novel database on countries exposed to coastal risks (CR), this paper estimates an augmented neoclassical growth model that encompasses eight other new growth models. To account for uncertainty related to the number of models and choice of growth determinant proxies, we use a Bayesian averaging of classical estimates (BACE) approach. A preliminary examination of the data reveals that a country that faces coastal risks is likely to be a former British colony characterized by a common law legal framework, a parliamentary political system, a high degree of international trade openness, little language and ethnic fractionalization, a low level of public sector corruption, and a high rate of fertility. The BACE-based model selection procedure shows that, in CR countries, the growth determinant proxies typically used in the neoclassical, macroeconomic policy, natural resources, and institutions theories are significantly correlated with growth. These results suggest two implications related to these countries’ coastal ecosystems. First, because they are heavily dependent on natural resources and have high fertility rates, these countries might seek short-term economic gains at the expense of deterioration in their ecosystems. Second, these countries’ good institutions and low levels of ethnic division might be conducive to sustainable management of these ecosystems.

本文利用一个关于遭受沿海风险 (CR) 的国家的新型数据库，估计了一个包含其他八种新增长模型的增强新古典增长模型。为了解释与模型数量和增长决定因素代理选择相关的不确定性，我们使用经典估计的贝叶斯平均 (BACE) 方法。初步审查数据显示，面临沿海风险的国家很可能是前英国殖民地，其特点是普通法法律框架、议会政治制度、国际贸易开放程度高、语言少、种族分化、公共部门腐败程度低，生育率高。基于 BACE 的模型选择程序表明，在 CR 国家，新古典主义、宏观经济政策、自然资源和制度理论中通常使用的增长决定因素代理与增长显着相关。这些结果表明与这些国家的沿海生态系统有关的两个影响。首先，由于这些国家严重依赖自然资源且生育率高，它们可能会以牺牲生态系统恶化为代价来寻求短期经济收益。其次，这些国家良好的制度和较低的种族分化程度可能有利于这些生态系统的可持续管理。