ABSTRACT

Melanoma is an increasingly common skin cancer with approximately 200,000 new cases discovered annually worldwide. This article seeks to estimate the relationships between mortality rate from melanoma, prevalence of obesity and annual new melanoma cases per 100,000 persons in the population. By way of doing so, it uses a quadratic model to examine the possibility of the obesity survival paradox, namely, the counter-intuitive possibility that a higher prevalence of obesity reduces the mortality risk from melanoma. The outcomes support a non-monotonic relationship, with implications for treatment decisions regarding melanoma patients who are obese versus those with a normal weight (BMI < 25).

摘要

黑色素瘤是一种日益常见的皮肤癌，全球每年发现约 200,000 个新病例。本文旨在估计黑色素瘤死亡率、肥胖患病率与每年每 10 万人中新发黑色素瘤病例之间的关系。通过这样做，它使用二次模型来检验肥胖生存悖论的可能性，即肥胖患病率较高会降低黑色素瘤死亡风险的反直觉可能性。结果支持非单调关系，对肥胖黑色素瘤患者与体重正常（BMI < 25）患者的治疗决策具有影响。