The effects of rising global temperatures are becoming increasingly evident, with observable consequences such as the melting of polar ice caps, the occurrence of cyclones and hurricanes, desertification, and the destruction of ecosystems. The Italian economy is particularly vulnerable to the climate challenge, due to the prolonged slowdown in economic growth and the high unemployment that have plagued this economy over the last decades. Environmental innovation could be the key to tackling climate change, while at the same time promoting growth and employment. A comprehensive assessment of the effects of environmental innovation on growth and employment at the macroeconomic level should consider the compensation mechanisms associated with productivity gains, the substitution effects between more or less polluting goods, and the role of demand and consumer preferences. However, a comprehensive analysis that includes all of these direct and indirect effects of environmental innovation at the macroeconomic level is still lacking. This study aims to bridge this gap, introducing a structuralist computable general equilibrium model to simulate the effects of an increase in productivity and a change in consumer preferences in favour of less polluting industries in the Italian economy over the period 1995–2050. The results of the simulations indicate that a change in consumer preferences in favour of environmentally friendly goods in the Italian context may be more effective than an increase in productivity in stimulating demand, growth, and employment.

全球气温上升的影响日益明显，极地冰盖融化、气旋和飓风发生、荒漠化以及生态系统破坏等显而易见的后果。由于过去几十年经济增长长期放缓和高失业率困扰意大利经济，意大利经济特别容易受到气候挑战的影响。环境创新可能是应对气候变化的关键，同时促进增长和就业。在宏观经济层面全面评估环境创新对增长和就业的影响，应考虑与生产率提高相关的补偿机制、或多或少污染商品之间的替代效应以及需求和消费者偏好的作用。然而，仍然缺乏将环境创新在宏观经济层面上的所有这些直接和间接影响包括在内的全面分析。本研究旨在弥合这一差距，引入结构主义可计算一般均衡模型来模拟 1995 年至 2050 年期间意大利经济中生产率提高和消费者偏好变化对污染较少行业的影响。模拟结果表明，在意大利背景下，消费者偏好的变化对环保商品的青睐可能比提高生产率更能刺激需求、增长和就业。