The Karakoram highway (KKH) is renowned for its complex natural environment and geological conditions. The climate changes drastically and directly influences the frequency and magnitude of debris flows in this region, resulting in significant casualties and economic losses. However, the risk assessment of debris flows along the KKH in the context of climate change has been rarely explored. Therefore, in this study we used the debris flow data, historical meteorological data and future climate prediction data to assess the debris flow risk of the study region during the baseline period (2009–2018), 2025s (2021–2030), 2035s (2031–2040) and 2045s (2041–2050) under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario. The results show that the risk of debris flows increases with climate change, with the highest risk level in the 2025s. Among different parts of this highway, the upper reaches of the Ghez River and the second half of Tashkorgan-Khunjerab are the sections with the highest risk. These findings are helpful for debris flow prevention and can offer coping strategies for the existing line of the KKH. They also provide some reference for the renovation, improvement, operation, and maintenance of the KKH.

喀喇昆仑公路（KKH）以其复杂的自然环境和地质条件而闻名。气候变化剧烈，直接影响该地区泥石流发生的频率和规模，造成重大人员伤亡和经济损失。然而，气候变化背景下KKH沿线泥石流的风险评估却很少被探讨。因此，本研究利用泥石流数据、历史气象数据和未来气候预测数据，对研究区基准期（2009-2018年）、2025年（2021-2030年）、2035年（2031年）泥石流风险进行了评估。 –2040) 和 2045s (2041-2050) 在代表性浓度路径 8.5 情景下。结果表明，泥石流风险随着气候变化而增加，2025年代风险水平最高。这条公路的不同路段中，盖孜河上游和塔什库尔干-红其拉甫后段是风险最高的路段。这些发现有助于预防泥石流，并可为现有的竹脚山线提供应对策略。也为KKH的改造、完善、运营和维护提供了一些参考。