Many studies have been published during the past decades highlighting the role played by diasporas in conflicts raging in their home countries and on the links between diasporas and international terrorism. Contemporary literature treats the links between diasporas and conflicts in a simplistic manner. For instance, little space is dedicated to determining the effect of diaspora on political instability in the home country. The current study aims to assess the effect of diasporas on political instability in Africa, taking into consideration the role of geographical distance when choosing the destination countries. To achieve this goal, we use two models to test our hypothesis. First, we deploy a gravity model to investigate the destination choice of migrants who build a diaspora. Based on their destination, we then use a fixed effects model and the generalised method of moment (GMM) to analyse the effects of the diaspora on political instability. Overall, we aim to research whether there is a correlation between migrant communities and the political stability in their origin countries. Our findings suggest that diaspora can act as a feedback factor to existing situations by either increasing or decreasing political instability dependent on the initial state the country was in, even though the greatest contribution of diasporas is in terms of peace not of war.

中文翻译：

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侨民和政治不稳定

过去几十年发表的许多研究都强调了侨民在其本国激烈冲突中所发挥的作用以及侨民与国际恐怖主义之间的联系。当代文学以简单化的方式处理侨民与冲突之间的联系。例如，很少有篇幅专门讨论侨民对母国政治不稳定的影响。目前的研究旨在评估侨民对非洲政治不稳定的影响，同时考虑到选择目的地国家时地理距离的作用。为了实现这一目标，我们使用两个模型来检验我们的假设。首先，我们采用重力模型来调查建立散居地的移民的目的地选择。根据他们的目的地，我们然后使用固定效应模型和广义矩方法（高斯模型）分析侨民对政治不稳定的影响。总体而言，我们的目标是研究移民社区与其原籍国的政治稳定之间是否存在相关性。我们的研究结果表明，侨民可以作为现有局势的反馈因素，根据该国最初的状态增加或减少政治不稳定，尽管侨民的最大贡献是和平而不是战争。