Background In recent years, the state of Mato Grosso has presented one of the highest dengue incidence rates in Brazil. The meeting of the Amazon, Cerrado and Pantanal biomes results in a large variation of rainfall and temperature across different regions of the state. In addition, Mato Grosso has been undergoing intense urban growth since the 1970s, mainly due to the colonization of the Mid-North and North regions. We analyzed factors involved in dengue incidence in Mato Grosso from 2008 to 2019. Methods The Moran Global Index was used to assess spatial autocorrelation of dengue incidence using explanatory variables such as temperature, precipitation, deforestation, population density and municipal development index. Areas at risk of dengue were grouped by the Local Moran Indicator. Results We noticed that areas at risk of dengue expanded from the Mid-North region to the North; the same pattern occurred from the Southeast to the Northeast; the South region remained at low-risk levels. The increase in incidence was influenced by precipitation, deforestation and the municipal development index. Conclusions The identification of risk areas for dengue in space and time enables public health authorities to focus their control and prevention efforts, reducing infestation and the potential impact of dengue in the human population.

中文翻译：

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141 个城市的故事：巴西马托格罗索州登革热的空间分布

背景 近年来，马托格罗索州是巴西登革热发病率最高的州之一。亚马逊、塞拉多和潘塔纳尔生物群落的交汇导致该州不同地区的降雨量和温度存在巨大差异。此外，自 20 世纪 70 年代以来，马托格罗索州一直经历着激烈的城市发展，这主要是由于中北部和北部地区的殖民化。我们分析了 2008 年至 2019 年马托格罗索州登革热发病的相关因素。方法 使用莫兰全球指数，利用温度、降水、森林砍伐、人口密度和城市发展指数等解释变量来评估登革热发病的空间自相关性。存在登革热风险的地区按照当地莫兰指标进行分组。结果我们注意到，登革热高危地区从中北部地区向北部地区扩展；从东南部到东北部也出现了同样的情况；南方地区仍处于低风险水平。发病率的增加受到降水、森林砍伐和城市发展指数的影响。结论 确定登革热的空间和时间风险区域使公共卫生当局能够集中控制和预防工作，减少登革热的感染和对人群的潜在影响。