The International Renewable Energy Agency predicts that with current national policies, targets and energy plans, global renewable energy shares are expected to reach 36% and 3400 GWh of stationary energy storage by 2050. However, IRENA Energy Transformation Scenario forecasts that these targets should be at 61% and 9000 GWh to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050 and limit the global temperature rise within the twenty-first century to under 2 °C. Despite widely known hazards and safety design of grid-scale battery energy storage systems, there is a lack of established risk management schemes and models as compared to the chemical, aviation, nuclear and the petroleum industry. Incidents of battery storage facility fires and explosions are reported every year since 2018, resulting in human injuries, and millions of US dollars in loss of asset and operation. Traditional risk assessment practices such as ETA, FTA, FMEA, HAZOP and STPA are becoming inadequate for accident prevention and mitigation of complex energy power systems. This work describes an improved risk assessment approach for analyzing safety designs in the battery energy storage system incorporated in large-scale solar to improve accident prevention and mitigation, via incorporating probabilistic event tree and systems theoretic analysis. The causal factors and mitigation measures are presented. The risk assessment framework presented is expected to benefit the Energy Commission and Sustainable Energy Development Authority, and Department of Standards in determining safety engineering guidelines and protocols for future large-scale renewable energy projects. Stakeholders and Utility companies will benefit from improved safety and reliability by avoiding high-cost asset damages and downtimes due to accident events.

中文翻译：

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大规模储能系统：安全与风险评估

国际可再生​​能源机构预测，根据当前的国家政策、目标和能源计划，到 2050 年，全球可再生能源份额预计将达到 36%，固定储能容量将达到 3400 GWh。然而，IRENA 能源转型情景预测，这些目标应在到2050年实现净零碳排放，并将21世纪内全球气温上升限制在2°C以内，发电量减少61%和9000 GWh。尽管电网规模电池储能系统的危害和安全设计众所周知，但与化工、航空、核能和石油行业相比，缺乏既定的风险管理方案和模型。自2018年以来，每年都会发生电池存储设施火灾和爆炸事件，造成人员伤亡，以及数百万美元的资产和运营损失。ETA、FTA、FMEA、HAZOP 和 STPA 等传统风险评估实践已不足以预防和缓解复杂能源电力系统的事故。这项工作描述了一种改进的风险评估方法，用于分析大型太阳能电池储能系统的安全设计，通过结合概率事件树和系统理论分析来改善事故预防和缓解。提出了影响因素和缓解措施。提出的风险评估框架预计将有利于能源委员会和可持续能源发展局以及标准部确定未来大型可再生能源项目的安全工程指南和协议。