Throughout the arid American West, agriculture is the dominant consumptive use of water, with farming operations dependent on finite groundwater resources or limited surface flows for necessary irrigation. This study makes use of climatic, economic, and remote-sensed land cover data to model those factors that contribute to farmers’ water use decisions in central Arizona. Growers’ water needs are met through a combination of groundwater, Colorado River water delivered via the Central Arizona Project, and additional surface flows. The modeling approach presented is applicable to a wide range of agricultural communities that are dependent on irrigation for agriculture. This study specifically examines water deliveries to and irrigation intensity within irrigation districts in central Arizona. Econometric analysis of integrated panel data finds that climate, the prices of December cotton ( Gossypium hirsutum L.) futures, water costs, and fallowed land area have significant impacts on at least one of the two outcomes of interest. Understanding irrigators’ water use decisions is useful to those concerned with the impact of water availability on local economies, ecosystems, and aquifers.

中文翻译：

---

经济和气候因素对干旱地区农业用水的影响

在整个干旱的美国西部，农业是主要的用水消耗方式，农业生产依赖有限的地下水资源或有限的地表流量来进行必要的灌溉。本研究利用气候、经济和遥感土地覆盖数据对亚利桑那州中部影响农民用水决策的因素进行建模。种植者的用水需求通过地下水、亚利桑那中心项目输送的科罗拉多河水以及额外的地表水流的结合来满足。所提出的建模方法适用于依赖农业灌溉的广泛农业社区。这项研究专门研究了亚利桑那州中部灌溉区的供水量和灌溉强度。综合面板数据的计量经济分析发现，气候、12 月棉花 (Gossypium hirsutum L.) 期货价格、水成本和休耕土地面积对两个感兴趣结果中的至少一个有重大影响。了解灌溉者的用水决策对于那些关心水资源供应对当地经济、生态系统和含水层影响的人很有用。