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Unusual Changes in the U.S. Treasury Security Market During the Fourth Round of Quantitative Easing
Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice Pub Date : 2023-09-06 , DOI: 10.2478/jcbtp-2023-0022
Kyle D. Allen 1 , Scott E. Hein 2
Affiliation  

The Covid-19 Pandemic and policy response rattled the US Treasury markets. Conventional US Treasuries, inflation adjusted US Treasuries, and the relationship between the two developed in ways such that ignoring changes in real interest rates yielded distorted inflation expectations estimates. Since the beginning of the pandemic, monetary policy kept nominal rates low and close to zero, but positive. Real rates, on the other hand, became increasingly negative. The relationship between the two market rates became negatively correlated, and distorted because of the fourth round of quantitative easing, along with the Fed preventing nominal yields from turning negative. Federal Reserve actions during the Covid-19 pandemic drove a larger wedge between nominal interest rates and real interest rates in the inflation adjusted market.

中文翻译:

第四轮量化宽松期间美国国债市场异常变化

Covid-19 大流行和政策反应令美国国债市场感到不安。传统美国国债、通胀调整后的美国国债以及两者之间的关系发展方式使得忽视实际利率的变化会产生扭曲的通胀预期估计。自疫情爆发以来,货币政策保持名义利率较低且接近于零,但积极。另一方面,实际利率变得越来越负。由于第四轮量化宽松以及美联储阻止名义收益率转为负值,两个市场利率之间的关系变得负相关并扭曲。美联储在 Covid-19 大流行期间的行动导致通胀调整后市场的名义利率和实际利率之间出现更大的差距。
更新日期:2023-09-06
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