This paper is Part 2 of two companion papers, proposing a multidisciplinary approach to assess stability and velocity evolution of a large landslide located in the Central Italian Alps (upper Valtellina region): the Ruinon landslide. Part 1 of this work presented a 3D stress–strain finite element analysis, which assessed the morphological and geomechanical predisposition of the slope to gravitational instabilities and defined the current stress state along the slope. In this paper, a thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) numerical analysis is applied to the landslide shear zone, to assess the link between landslide driving factors and the shear band material response. Data used as input for the model were pore pressure, reference stresses and initial temperature at the sliding surface, as well as the monitored velocity of the landslide body, assumed to move as a rigid block. The shear band material was modeled as a visco-plastic medium with thermal softening and velocity hardening, thus thermal- and load-rate sensitivity of the material were estimated through laboratory testing. To this end, triaxial compression tests with thermal control were performed on rock samples representative of the shear band. To constrain the model, results of the analysis presented in Part 1 were used to define the stress state at the sliding surface and the relationship between pore pressure and shear stresses. Then, pore pressure data from in-situ piezometers relevant to the period 2014–2018 were introduced and a best fitting between modeled and monitored landslide velocities was obtained. Finally, velocities were forecasted for the period 2018–2020​ and a process of validation was performed using field displacement data. The outputs of the model adequately simulate the measured landslide velocity, reproducing the sliding behavior and its relationship with pore pressure. The presented approach may be applied to further case studies, aimed at defining a novel physics based early warning strategy for landslides.

本文是两篇姊妹篇论文的第二部分，提出了一种多学科方法来评估位于意大利阿尔卑斯山中部（瓦尔泰利纳上部地区）的大型滑坡（Ruinon 滑坡）的稳定性和速度演化。这项工作的第 1 部分介绍了 3D 应力-应变有限元分析，该分析评估了斜坡对重力不稳定的形态和地质力学倾向，并定义了斜坡上的当前应力状态。在本文中，对滑坡剪切带进行了热水力学（THM）数值分析，以评估滑坡驱动因素与剪切带材料响应之间的联系。模型输入的数据包括滑动面的孔隙压力、参考应力和初始温度，以及滑坡体的监测速度，假设作为刚性块移动。剪切带材料被建模为具有热软化和速度硬化的粘塑性介质，因此通过实验室测试估计了材料的热敏感性和负载率敏感性。为此，对代表剪切带的岩石样品进行了热控制三轴压缩试验。为了约束模型，第 1 部分中提供的分析结果用于定义滑动表面的应力状态以及孔隙压力和剪应力之间的关系。然后，引入了 2014-2018 年期间相关的原位测压计的孔隙压力数据，并获得了建模和监测的滑坡速度之间的最佳拟合。最后，对 2018 年至 2020 年期间的速度进行了预测，并使用现场位移数据进行了验证过程。模型的输出充分模拟了测量的滑坡速度，再现了滑动行为及其与孔隙压力的关系。所提出的方法可应用于进一步的案例研究，旨在定义一种新颖的基于物理的滑坡预警策略。