The coronavirus pandemic has created a new awareness of epidemics, and insurance companies have been reminded to consider the risk related to infectious diseases. This paper extends the traditional multi-state models to include epidemic effects. The main idea is to specify the transition intensities in a Markov model such that the impact of contagion is explicitly present in the same way as in epidemiological models. Since we can study the Markov model with contagious effects at an individual level, we consider individual risk and reserves relating to insurance products, conforming with the standard multi-state approach in life insurance mathematics. We compare our notions with other but related notions in the literature and perform numerical illustrations.

新冠疫情引发人们对流行病的新认识，提醒保险公司考虑传染病相关风险。本文将传统的多状态模型扩展到包括流行病影响。主要思想是指定马尔可夫模型中的转变强度，以便以与流行病学模型相同的方式明确呈现传染的影响。由于我们可以在个人层面上研究具有传染效应的马尔可夫模型，因此我们考虑与保险产品相关的个人风险和准备金，符合人寿保险数学中的标准多状态方法。我们将我们的概念与文献中其他但相关的概念进行比较，并进行数值说明。