In this paper, we estimate the impact on employment of the 2021 Child Tax Credit (CTC) expansion, which increased the size of the benefit, made it fully refundable, and allowed for monthly receipt. We harness exogenous variation in monthly CTC eligibility by comparing employment among caregivers to that of childless workers before and after monthly payments commenced on July 15, 2021, using event study and difference-in-differences frameworks. Our preferred estimates suggest that monthly CTC payments were, at most, associated with a relatively small decline in employment among caregivers. Our primary difference-in-differences estimates indicate a statistically nonsignificant decline in employment of approximately 344,000 to 495,000 caregivers relative to childless adults. Our treatment intensity estimates suggest an increase in employment among caregivers with two or more children relative to those with one child. Our findings contribute to the cost-benefit calculus of the current debate over whether to establish a permanent fully refundable monthly CTC.

中文翻译：

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2021 年可全额退还的每月儿童税收抵免对就业影响的准实验证据

在本文中，我们估计了 2021 年儿童税收抵免 (CTC) 扩展对就业的影响，该扩展增加了福利规模，使其可全额退还，并允许按月领取。我们利用事件研究和双重差分框架，比较 2021 年 7 月 15 日开始按月付款之前和之后的护理人员就业情况与无子女工人的就业情况，从而利用每月 CTC 资格的外生变化。我们的首选估计表明，每月 CTC 付款最多与护理人员就业率相对较小的下降有关。我们的主要双重差分估计表明，相对于无子女成年人，护理人员的就业人数下降了大约 344,000 至 495,000 名，但在统计上并不显着。我们的治疗强度估计表明，与只有一个孩子的护理人员相比，有两个或更多孩子的护理人员的就业率有所增加。我们的研究结果有助于当前关于是否建立永久可全额退还的每月 CTC 争论的成本效益计算。