I compile novel data measuring county-level travel distances to abortion facilities and resident abortion rates from 2009 through 2020. Using these data, I implement a difference-in-difference research design measuring the effects of driving distance to the nearest abortion facility on abortions and births. The results indicate large but diminishing effects: an increase from 0 to 100 miles is estimated to reduce abortion rates by 19.4% and increase birth rates by 2.2%, while the next 100 miles reduces abortions by an additional 12.8% and increases births by an additional 1.6%. Based on this evidence, I forecast the effects of post-Roe abortion bans on abortion rates by county, state, and region. In a scenario in which total abortion bans take effect in 24 states, about one-quarter of residents seeking abortions are predicted to become trapped by distance and about three-quarters of those who are trapped are predicted to give birth as a result.

中文翻译：

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后罗伊时代美国的预测：旅行距离增加对堕胎和生育的影响

我编制了测量 2009 年至 2020 年县级到堕胎设施的行驶距离和居民堕胎率的新数据。利用这些数据，我实施了一项双重差分研究设计，测量到最近堕胎设施的驾驶距离对堕胎和堕胎的影响。出生。结果表明，效果虽大但逐渐减弱：从 0 英里增加到 100 英里，预计可将堕胎率降低 19.4%，出生率增加 2.2%，而接下来的 100 英里，堕胎率将额外减少 12.8%，出生率将额外增加1.6%。根据这些证据，我预测了罗伊法案后堕胎禁令对各县、州和地区堕胎率的影响。在24个州全面禁止堕胎的情况下，预计约有四分之一的寻求堕胎的居民会因距离而受困，而约四分之三的受困者预计会因此分娩。