One of central problems in the theory of conditionals is the construction of a probability space, where conditionals can be interpreted as events and assigned probabilities. The problem has been given a technical formulation by van Fraassen (23), who also discussed in great detail the solution in the form of Stalnaker Bernoulli spaces. These spaces are very complex – they have the cardinality of the continuum, even if the language is finite. A natural question is, therefore, whether a technically simpler (in particular finite) partial construction can be given. In the paper we provide a new solution to the problem. We show how to construct a finite probability space \(\mathrm {S}^\#=\left(\mathrm\Omega^\#,\mathrm\Sigma^\#,\mathrm P^\#\right)\) in which simple conditionals and their Boolean combinations can be interpreted. The structure is minimal in terms of cardinality within a certain, naturally defined class of models – an interesting side-effect is an estimate of the number of non-equivalent propositions in the conditional language. We demand that the structure satisfy certain natural assumptions concerning the logic and semantics of conditionals and also that it satisfy PCCP. The construction can be easily iterated, producing interpretations for conditionals of arbitrary complexity.

条件句理论的核心问题之一是概率空间的构造，其中条件句可以解释为事件和分配的概率。van Fraassen (23) 对该问题给出了技术表述，他还以 Stalnaker Bernoulli 空间的形式详细讨论了解决方案。这些空间非常复杂——即使语言是有限的，它们也具有连续体的基数。因此，一个自然的问题是，是否可以给出技术上更简单（特别是有限）的部分构造。在本文中，我们为该问题提供了一种新的解决方案。我们展示如何构造有限概率空间\(\mathrm {S}^\#=\left(\mathrm\Omega^\#,\mathrm\Sigma^\#,\mathrm P^\#\right)\)其中可以解释简单的条件及其布尔组合。在某个自然定义的模型类中，就基数而言，该结构是最小的——一个有趣的副作用是对条件语言中非等价命题数量的估计。我们要求该结构满足有关条件逻辑和语义的某些自然假设，并且满足 PCCP。该构造可以很容易地迭代，从而产生任意复杂性条件的解释。