Despite the important impact of commodity terms-of-trade (CTOT) on GDP growth, child mortality rates and public debt, little is known about its determinants. Using data from 178 countries (grouped according to their commodity export-import structure) over the period 1962 to 2020, we examine the short-and long-run effects of global economic activity, OECD and emerging markets growth, the exchange rate of U.S. dollar, stock price volatility and real interest rates on CTOT growth. We demonstrate their typical asymmetric effect on exporters and importers, and show, for example, that the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar also exhibits opposite effects over the short and long run due to inelastic commodity demand. We find that the growth of emerging market economies provides the most universal and consistent effect across all of our subsamples (i.e., energy and non-energy exporters and importers) - this latter point underscores the contemporary global importance of developing countries' growth.

尽管商品贸易条件 (CTOT) 对 GDP 增长、儿童死亡率和公共债务具有重要影响，但对其决定因素却知之甚少。我们使用 178 个国家（根据其商品进出口结构分组）1962 年至 2020 年期间的数据，研究了全球经济活动、经合组织和新兴市场增长、美元汇率的短期和长期影响、股价波动和实际利率对 CTOT 增长的影响。我们展示了它们对出口商和进口商的典型不对称影响，并表明，例如，由于大宗商品需求缺乏弹性，美元汇率在短期和长期内也表现出相反的影响。我们发现，新兴市场经济体的增长在我们所有的子样本中提供了最普遍和一致的影响（即，