Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to explain the effects of innovation, specialisation, qualifications and sectoral structure on the resilience of German regions (municipal level) facing the Great Recession in 2008/2009.

Design/methodology/approach

To calculate the effects of various variables on the resilience of German regions against the Great Recession, the authors use quantile regressions. To measure resilience, the authors create a number of indexes representing different parts of the economy: resistance performance index, recovery performance index, shift-share resistance index, shift-share recovery index, manufacturing resistance index, manufacturing recovery index, service resistance index and service recovery index.

Findings

The results of this study confirm that locations with employment growth before the crisis and with a good industry structure show better employment dynamics during and after the crisis. The authors find evidence for positive relationship between innovativeness, qualification, the share of the service sector, specialisation and resistance. The authors obtain positive results for related variety and both resistance and recovery. The share of the manufacturing sector only shows a positive relationship with recovery.

Originality/value

The authors expand the existing literature in three aspects: First, instead of using regions as observation units, the authors conduct the analyses on the basis of municipalities and their surroundings. By doing so, the authors reduce the modifiable area unit problem because the authors do not rely on regions defined for administrative reasons. Second, the authors apply quantile regressions to detect nonlinear effects. Third, in addition to the resilience of the whole economy, the authors also study the resilience of the manufacturing and service sectors separately and examine the resilience of the local shift effect.

中文翻译：

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2008/2009 年德国地区面临危机的恢复力：创新、专业化、资质和部门结构的影响

目的

本文的目的是解释创新、专业化、资质和部门结构对德国地区（市级）在 2008/2009 年经济大衰退时的复原力的影响。

设计/方法论/途径

为了计算各种变量对德国地区抵御大衰退的弹性的影响，作者使用了分位数回归。为了衡量弹性，作者创建了代表经济不同部分的许多指数：阻力绩效指数、复苏绩效指数、转移份额阻力指数、转移份额复苏指数、制造业阻力指数、制造业复苏指数、服务阻力指数和服务恢复指数。

发现

这项研究的结果证实，危机前就业增长且产业结构良好的地区在危机期间和危机后表现出更好的就业动态。作者发现了创新性、资质、服务部门份额、专业化和阻力之间存在正相关关系的证据。作者获得了相关品种以及抗性和恢复的积极结果。制造业的比重仅与复苏呈正相关关系。

原创性/价值

作者对现有文献进行了三个方面的拓展：首先，作者不再以地区为观察单位，而是以直辖市及其周边地区为基础进行分析。通过这样做，作者减少了可修改的区域单位问题，因为作者不依赖于出于管理原因定义的区域。其次，作者应用分位数回归来检测非线性效应。第三，除了整体经济的弹性之外，作者还分别研究了制造业和服务业的弹性，并考察了局部转移效应的弹性。