The Arctic has warmed more than twice the rate of the entire globe. To quantify possible climate change effects, we calculate wind energy potentials from a multi-model ensemble of Arctic-CORDEX. For this, we analyze future changes of wind power density (WPD) using an eleven-member multi-model ensemble. Impacts are estimated for two periods (2020-2049 and 2070-2099) of the 21st century under a high emission scenario (RCP8.5).

The multi-model mean reveals an increase of seasonal WPD over the Arctic in the future decades. WPD variability across a range of temporal scales is projected to increase over the Arctic. The signal amplifies by the end of 21st century. Future changes in the frequency of wind speeds at 100 m not useable for wind energy production (wind speeds below 4 m/s or above 25 m/s) has been analyzed. The RCM ensemble simulates a more frequent occurrence of 100 m non-usable wind speeds for the wind-turbines over Scandinavia and selected land areas in Alaska, northern Russia and Canada. In contrast, non-usable wind speeds decrease over large parts of Eastern Siberia and in northern Alaska. Thus, our results indicate increased potential of the Arctic for the development and production of wind energy.

Bias corrected and not corrected near-surface wind speed and WPD changes have been compared with each other. It has been found that both show the same sign of future change, but differ in magnitude of these changes. The role of sea-ice retreat and vegetation expansion in the Arctic in future on near-surface wind speed variability has been also assessed. Surface roughness through sea-ice and vegetation changes may significantly impact on WPD variability in the Arctic.

北极变暖的速度是全球变暖速度的两倍多。为了量化可能的气候变化影响，我们通过 Arctic-CORDEX 的多模型集合计算了风能潜力。为此，我们使用十一个成员的多模型集成来分析风功率密度（WPD）的未来变化。在高排放情景（RCP8.5）下估计了 21 世纪两个时期（2020-2049 年和 2070-2099 年）的影响。

多模型平均值揭示了未来几十年北极地区季节性 WPD 的增加。预计北极地区的 WPD 变化在一系列时间尺度上将会增加。到 21 世纪末，这一信号将会增强。分析了不可用于风能生产的100 m 风速频率的未来变化 （风速低于 4  m/s 或高于 25 m/s）。 RCM 系综模拟了斯堪的纳维亚半岛 以及阿拉斯加、俄罗斯北部和加拿大选定陆地地区风力涡轮机更频繁出现的 100 m 不可用风速。相比之下，东西伯利亚大部分地区和阿拉斯加北部的不可利用风速下降。因此，我们的结果表明北极开发和生产风能的潜力不断增加。

对偏差校正和未校正的近地表风速和 WPD 变化进行了比较。研究发现，两者都显示出相同的未来变化迹象，但这些变化的幅度不同。还评估了未来北极海冰消退和植被扩张对近地表风速变化的作用。海冰和植被变化导致的表面粗糙度可能会对北极 WPD 变化产生重大影响。