This study examines the effect of uncertain tax position (UTP) disclosures on analysts' effective tax rate (ETR) forecasts. The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) requires that firms provide detailed information about UTPs reported in their annual 10-K filings on their Schedule UTP form. Schedule UTP applies to federal tax positions for which a corresponding tax reserve has been created for financial reporting purposes. Academics and practitioners have deliberated whether Schedule UTP disclosures could lead to firms altering how they account for their unrecognized tax benefits (UTBs) in financial statements. Overall, we find that UTB additions were originally useful to analysts in forecasting ETRs but became less useful after the implementation of the Schedule UTP form, as it likely reduced the usefulness of information for financial statement users. Our findings contribute to the debate regarding the extent of tax policy overlapping with the generally accepted accounting principles of financial reporting. Following up on a 2018 Treasury Department study that recommended more disclosure on Schedule UTP, the IRS, in December of 2022, finalized additional disclosure requirements to Schedule UTP, These new requirements may further incentivize firms to alter UTB reporting in their financial statements.

本研究探讨了不确定的税收状况 (UTP) 披露对分析师有效税率 (ETR) 预测的影响。美国国税局 (IRS) 要求公司提供有关其年度 10-K 申报表 UTP 表格中报告的 UTP 的详细信息。附表 UTP 适用于已出于财务报告目的而创建相应税收储备的联邦税务状况。学者和从业者已经讨论过附表 UTP 披露是否会导致公司改变在财务报表中解释未确认税收优惠 (UTB) 的方式。总体而言，我们发现 UTB 添加最初对分析师预测 ETR 有用，但在实施附表 UTP 表格后变得不那么有用，因为它可能会降低信息对财务报表用户的有用性。我们的研究结果引发了关于税收政策与普遍接受的财务报告会计原则重叠程度的争论。继 2018 年财政部的一项研究建议在附表 UTP 上进行更多披露之后，美国国税局于 2022 年 12 月最终确定了附表 UTP 的额外披露要求。这些新要求可能会进一步激励企业在其财务报表中更改 UTB 报告。