Abstract

Industrial structure upgrading (ISU) in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has been improving in recent years, making it essential to examine how such upgrading influences pollution emissions in SSA. However, studies concerning the environment in SSA have overlooked this important role. Consequently, achieving the Sustainable Development Goals becomes futile if such critical issues are not given due attention in policy discourse. In light of this, this study examined the effect of ISU on pollution emissions in 28 SSA countries using data from 1980 to 2020 and employed two key measures of ISU as contributions to the literature. Regarding the analysis, the fixed effects, random effects, and feasible generalized least squares estimators and the Dumitrescu and Hurlin (D-H) causality test were employed. The results show that ISU improves the sustainable environment by reducing pollution emissions in SSA by 0.03–0.04%. Furthermore, economic growth (EG) increases pollution emissions by 0.63–0.72%, but after reaching a threshold level of 0.10%, EG reduces pollution emissions by 0.03–0.04%. This confirms the EKC hypothesis in the selected SSAs. The D-H causality analysis also reveals a bidirectional relationship between ISU and pollution emissions. Based on these results, we conclude that upgrading the industrial structure in SSA is crucial for a clean and sustainable environment.

摘要

近年来，撒哈拉以南非洲（SSA）的产业结构升级（ISU）不断改善，因此有必要研究这种升级如何影响SSA的污染排放。然而，有关SSA环境的研究忽视了这一重要作用。因此，如果这些关键问题在政策讨论中得不到应有的重视，实现可持续发展目标就变得徒劳无功。有鉴于此，本研究利用 1980 年至 2020 年的数据考察了 ISU 对 28 个 SSA 国家污染排放的影响，并采用了 ISU 的两项关键措施作为文献贡献。在分析中，采用了固定效应、随机效应和可行的广义最小二乘估计以及 Dumitrescu 和 Hurlin (DH) 因果关系检验。结果表明，ISU 通过将 SSA 的污染排放量减少了 0.03-0.04%，改善了可持续环境。此外，经济增长（EG）使污染排放增加0.63-0.72%，但达到0.10%的阈值水平后，EG减少了0.03-0.04%的污染排放。这证实了所选 SSA 中的 EKC 假设。DH因果关系分析还揭示了ISU与污染排放之间的双向关系。基于这些结果，我们得出结论，SSA 的产业结构升级对于清洁和可持续的环境至关重要。这证实了所选 SSA 中的 EKC 假设。DH因果关系分析还揭示了ISU与污染排放之间的双向关系。基于这些结果，我们得出结论，SSA 的产业结构升级对于清洁和可持续的环境至关重要。这证实了所选 SSA 中的 EKC 假设。DH因果关系分析还揭示了ISU与污染排放之间的双向关系。基于这些结果，我们得出结论，SSA 的产业结构升级对于清洁和可持续的环境至关重要。