This study empirically estimates the expected basket-level demand effects, as well as the expected store profit effects, of three different customization levels of retailer promotions. Using data from a national grocery retailer in the U.S., we estimate a household’s contemporaneous purchase incidence outcomes in 28 frequently shopped categories. Estimating the cross-category dependencies in purchase incidence as a function of exposure to levels of customized promotions, allows us to measure the effect of each campaign on expected retailer profit and implement prescriptive analytics to identify the appropriate multi-level coupon mix for maximizing profits. We find all three levels of coupon customization result in per-customer returns, but that medium customization leads to the highest incremental expected profit, while high customization generates the highest expected profit. The results provide insights to retailers about investing in more customized promotional efforts, with a detailed cross-category perspective into where such value is gained.

Graphical abstract

中文翻译：

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衡量定制有针对性的促销对零售商利润的影响：使用篮子级别计量经济学分析的规范性分析

本研究实证估计了三种不同定制级别的零售商促销活动的预期篮子需求效应以及预期商店利润效应。利用美国一家全国杂货零售商的数据，我们估计了一个家庭 28 个经常购物类别的同期购买发生率结果。根据定制促销活动水平的函数来估计购买发生率的跨类别依赖性，使我们能够衡量每个活动对零售商预期利润的影响，并实施规范性分析，以确定适当的多级优惠券组合，以实现利润最大化。我们发现所有三个级别的优惠券定制都会带来每位客户的回报，但中等定制会带来最高的增量预期利润，而高度定制化则产生最高的预期利润。研究结果为零售商提供了有关投资更多定制促销活动的见解，并从详细的跨类别角度了解如何获得此类价值。

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