This study assesses the ability of six European seasonal forecast models to simulate the observed teleconnection between ENSO and tropical cyclones (TCs) over the North Atlantic. While the models generally capture the basin-wide observed link, its magnitude is overestimated in all forecast models compared to reanalysis. Furthermore, the ENSO-TC relationship in the Caribbean is poorly simulated. It is shown that incorrect forecasting of wind shear appears to affect the representation of the teleconnection in some models, however it is not a completely sufficient explanation for the overestimation of the link.

中文翻译：

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季节性预报中北大西洋热带气旋与 ENSO 之间的联系

本研究评估了六个欧洲季节性预报模型模拟观测到的 ENSO 与北大西洋热带气旋 (TC) 之间遥相关的能力。虽然这些模型通常捕获了全流域观测到的联系，但与重新分析相比，所有预测模型都高估了其幅度。此外，加勒比地区 ENSO-TC 关系的模拟效果很差。结果表明，风切变的错误预测似乎会影响某些模型中遥相关的表示，但这并不能完全解释高估的联系。