We study the effects of a large car scrappage scheme in Germany on new car purchases and local air quality by combining vehicle registration data with data on local air pollutant emissions. For identification we exploit cross-sectional variation across districts in the number of cars eligible for scrappage. The scheme had substantial effects on car purchases and did not simply reallocate demand across time in the short-term. Nevertheless, about half of all subsidized buyers benefited from windfall gains. The renewal of the car stock improved local air quality suggesting substantial mortality benefits that likely exceed the cost of the policy. While policy take-up is somewhat smaller in urban districts, improvements in air quality and health tend to be larger due to a higher car density.

我们通过将车辆登记数据与当地空气污染物排放数据相结合，研究了德国大规模汽车报废计划对新车购买和当地空气质量的影响。为了进行识别，我们利用了各地区符合报废条件的汽车数量的横截面差异。该计划对汽车购买产生了重大影响，并且并非简单地在短期内重新分配需求。尽管如此，大约一半的受补贴买家受益于意外之财。汽车库存的更新改善了当地的空气质量，这表明可观的死亡率效益可能超过该政策的成本。虽然城市地区的政策实施程度较小，但由于汽车密度较高，空气质量和健康的改善往往更大。