Purpose

This study aims to identify the economic impact of a potential implementation of a Climatic Reserve for the Swiss predominant white grape variety (Chasselas) vinified in the AOC (controlled designation of origin) category. The Climatic Reserve would imply the possibility of harvesting an additional quantity of grapes whose commercialization in wine would be delayed until it is approved by the relevant authority.

Design/methodology/approach

The impact of a potential implementation of this wine supply management tool is simulated through an innovative method that combines the vector autoregressive (VAR) model to estimate the influence of the previous consumptions and productions on the current consumption and linear regression [ordinary least square (OLS) method] to estimate the price elasticity to measure the evolution of the price depending on the simulated consumption. The VAR model is based on state-level data about production, stocks, and consumption (all the channels of distribution combined), while the OLS regression for estimating price elasticity uses the retail market data (Nielsen Panel). With the sales and price variables on a monthly frequency design, the latter represents about 40% of the wine market in Switzerland.

Findings

According to simulations carried out at the level of a region from the canton of Vaud in Switzerland (2000–2018), the increase in turnover linked to the release of the Climatic Reserve would be +3.1% for the indigenous white grape variety Chasselas.

Originality/value

The Climatic Reserve is a wine supply management tool that could complement the existing yield restriction, which does not significantly influence the quantities sold, according to previous studies. Our paper contributes to the literature by demonstrating the economic advantage of this supply management tool to deal with the increasingly frequent climatic hazards in wine production and market. The methodology could be applied to other wine regions (contexts) or other agricultural sectors.

中文翻译：

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模拟葡萄酒供应管理工具的影响：瑞士气候保护区的潜在实施

目的

本研究旨在确定对 AOC（原产地受控指定）类别中酿造的瑞士主要白葡萄品种（Chasselas）实施气候保护区的潜在经济影响。气候储备意味着有可能收获额外数量的葡萄，这些葡萄的葡萄酒商业化将被推迟，直到获得有关当局的批准。

设计/方法论/途径

该葡萄酒供应管理工具的潜在实施的影响是通过一种创新方法进行模拟的，该方法结合了向量自回归（VAR）模型来估计先前的消费和生产对当前消费的影响和线性回归[普通最小二乘法（OLS） ）方法]估计价格弹性，以衡量价格根据模拟消费的演变。VAR 模型基于有关生产、库存和消费（所有分销渠道的总和）的州级数据，而用于估计价格弹性的 OLS 回归则使用零售市场数据（尼尔森面板）。根据每月频率设计的销量和价格变量，后者约占瑞士葡萄酒市场的 40%。

发现

根据对瑞士沃州某个地区进行的模拟（2000-2018 年），与气候储备释放相关的本土白葡萄品种 Chasselas 的营业额增长将为 +3.1%。

原创性/价值

气候储备是一种葡萄酒供应管理工具，可以补充现有的产量限制，根据之前的研究，这不会显着影响销售数量。我们的论文通过展示这种供应管理工具在应对葡萄酒生产和市场中日益频繁的气候危害方面的经济优势，为文献做出了贡献。该方法可以应用于其他葡萄酒产区（背景）或其他农业部门。