Recent debates suggest that the global economy may enter a deglobalization phase accelerated after COVID-19 and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. This study investigates the investment decisions by multinational enterprises (MNEs) in 2019–2022. We build on a unique data set of about 2 million parent-affiliate linkages to show that there has been a general reorganization of MNEs’ investment strategies since: (i) a relevant share of divestments (\(33\%\)) has not been compensated by new investment decisions (\(14\%\)); (ii) domestic subsidiaries are more likely to be established and less likely to be divested; (iii) the average distance of a subsidiary from a parent company has increased; (iv) the number of countries in which the average MNE operates is higher than before. Therefore, after a basic empirical strategy for foreign direct investments and gravity controls, we first confirm a higher revealed preference for domestic investment by MNEs, among others, induced by higher exposure to COVID-19. When we delve deeper into divestment choices at the firm level, we find evidence of reshoring, i.e., when a divestment abroad by a parent company in a specific industry is positively associated with a domestic investment in the same industry.

最近的争论表明，在 COVID-19 和乌克兰持续冲突之后，全球经济可能会加速进入去全球化阶段。本研究调查了 2019-2022 年跨国企业 (MNE) 的投资决策。我们基于约 200 万个母子公司联系的独特数据集来表明，自以下原因以来，跨国企业的投资策略发生了全面重组：(i) 相关撤资份额 ( \(33\%\) ) 并未发生变化。通过新的投资决策得到补偿 ( \(14\%\)）；(ii) 境内子公司设立的可能性较大，剥离的可能性较小；(iii) 子公司与母公司的平均距离增加；(iv) 跨国公司平均经营的国家数量比以前有所增加。因此，在对外国直接投资和重力控制采取基本的实证策略之后，我们首先确认跨国企业等对国内投资表现出较高的偏好，这是由于较高的 COVID-19 暴露程度所致。当我们深入研究公司层面的撤资选择时，我们发现了回流的证据，即母公司在特定行业的海外撤资与同一行业的国内投资呈正相关。