The current research delves into the implications of exchange rate fluctuations on commodity trade between Pakistan and Japan, utilizing the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag method. While prior studies have predominantly utilized the symmetric cointegration approach, the current study posits that the limited assumption of symmetry between the exchange rate and the trade flows could have hindered the empirical findings. The research investigates both the symmetric and asymmetric effects of exchange rate fluctuations on 102 Pakistani industries that import from Japan and 62 industries that export to Japan at the industry level from 1980 to 2020. The outcomes indicate that in nearly half of the importing and exporting industries that engage in trade with Japan, there is evidence of a significant impact of asymmetric exchange rate fluctuations on trade flows in both the short and long term. The study suggests that policymakers should consider the industry-specific impact of exchange rate fluctuations on trade flows and implement targeted policies accordingly. Particularly, industries that benefit from currency depreciation should be encouraged through export incentives, while industries negatively affected by currency volatility should be provided with hedging mechanisms and other forms of support to mitigate their losses.

目前的研究利用非线性自回归分布滞后方法深入研究了汇率波动对巴基斯坦和日本之间商品贸易的影响。虽然之前的研究主要使用对称协整方法，但当前的研究认为，汇率和贸易流量之间对称性的有限假设可能会阻碍实证研究的结果。该研究调查了1980年至2020年间汇率波动对巴基斯坦从日本进口的102个行业和向日本出口的62个行业的对称和非对称影响。结果表明，近一半的进出口行业与日本进行贸易的国家，有证据表明，汇率波动的不对称对短期和长期贸易流动均产生重大影响。研究建议，政策制定者应考虑汇率波动对贸易流量的特定行业影响，并相应实施有针对性的政策。特别是，应通过出口激励措施鼓励受益于货币贬值的行业，而应为受货币波动负面影响的行业提供对冲机制和其他形式的支持，以减轻其损失。