Abstract

Objective

The present study aims to assess the mortality trends in myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) in Spain from 1980 to 2021.

Methods

Deaths and mid-year population data were collected from the National Institute of Statistics. We estimated age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs) per 100,000 person-years for all ages and ages 35–64. Joinpoint regression identified significant changes in mortality trends. The independent effects of age, period and birth cohort on MDS mortality were also examined.

Results

MDS-related deaths gradually increased from 36 in 1980 to 1118 in 2021, with an overall increase of 6.6% in age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs) for both men and women. Joinpoint analysis identified four periods for both men and women: 1980–1987 (stable rates), 1987–1990 (sharp increase), 1990–1999 (slower increase) and 1999–2021 (stable rates). ASMRs (35–64 years) increased by 2.5% over the study period, with a turning point identified in 1996 when rates decreased. Mortality from MDS increases with age and is higher in men. The cohort's relative risk increased until the mid-1950s and then stabilised, whilst the period relative risk increased between 1982 and 1996 and then stabilised.

Conclusion

The results of this study indicate a progressive increase in MDS-related deaths in Spain between 1980 and 2021. Notably, this increase was more pronounced in men than in women. Analysis of birth cohort trends revealed shifts in MDS risk, characterised by an increase until the mid-twentieth century, followed by a stabilisation. Using joinpoint analysis, four distinct periods were identified, shedding light on the changing patterns of mortality over time. These findings help to shape future research directions and inform public health strategies. They also provide optimism for advances in MDS treatment and potential reductions in mortality.

中文翻译：

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西班牙骨髓增生异常综合征死亡率：全面的年龄-时期-队列和连接点分析

摘要

客观的

本研究旨在评估 1980 年至 2021 年西班牙骨髓增生异常综合征 (MDS) 的死亡率趋势。

方法

死亡和年中人口数据是从国家统计研究所收集的。我们估计了所有年龄段和 35-64 岁的每 10 万人年的年龄标准化死亡率 (ASMR)。连接点回归确定了死亡率趋势的显着变化。还检查了年龄、时期和出生队列对 MDS 死亡率的独立影响。

结果

MDS相关死亡人数从1980年的36人逐渐增加到2021年的1118人，男性和女性的年龄标准化死亡率（ASMR）总体增加了6.6%。 Joinpoint 分析确定了男性和女性的四个时期：1980-1987 年（稳定比率）、1987-1990 年（急剧增长）、1990-1999 年（缓慢增长）和 1999-2021 年（稳定比率）。 ASMR（35-64 岁）在研究期间增加了 2.5%，1996 年出现了转折点，比率下降。 MDS 的死亡率随着年龄的增长而增加，男性的死亡率更高。该队列的相对风险一直增加到 20 世纪 50 年代中期，然后稳定下来，而该时期的相对风险在 1982 年至 1996 年间增加，然后稳定下来。

结论

这项研究的结果表明，1980 年至 2021 年间，西班牙与 MDS 相关的死亡人数逐渐增加。值得注意的是，男性的这种增加比女性更为明显。对出生队列趋势的分析揭示了 MDS 风险的变化，其特征是直到二十世纪中叶一直在增加，随后趋于稳定。使用连接点分析，确定了四个不同的时期，揭示了死亡率随时间变化的模式。这些发现有助于塑造未来的研究方向并为公共卫生策略提供信息。他们还对 MDS 治疗的进展和死亡率的潜在降低表示乐观。