Using novel survey data on Italian firms’ expectations collected just before and after the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak, we investigate the role of credit constraints in the transmission of adverse economic shocks. Our results show that credit-constrained firms plan to charge higher prices than unconstrained ones while expecting a larger fall in quantities. When we consider realized outcomes, however, these differences are less pronounced. This evidence is consistent with the credit programs implemented during the crisis being largely unanticipated at its outbreak and benefiting constrained firms relatively more.

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信贷约束和企业决策：COVID-19 爆发的教训

我们利用在 COVID-19 爆发之前和之后收集的有关意大利企业预期的新调查数据，研究了信贷约束在不利经济冲击传导中的作用。我们的结果表明，信贷受限的企业计划比不受信贷约束的企业收取更高的价格，同时预计数量会出现更大的下降。然而，当我们考虑已实现的结果时，这些差异就不那么明显了。这一证据与危机期间实施的信贷计划是一致的，这些计划在危机爆发时基本上是出乎意料的，并且使受限制的企业相对更多地受益。