Extreme precipitation intensification due to global warming has received significant attention; however, large uncertainties remain regarding how much it will change in the future, even under a given greenhouse gas emissions pathway. Our constraining analysis provides smaller future extreme precipitation intensification with reduced uncertainties than raw/unconstrained model simulation projections from the global to continental scales and also several sub-continental areas. Historical warming trends in climate model simulations present strong positive inter-model correlations with future annual maximum daily precipitation intensification from the global to continental scales. This emergent relationship is employed for constraining analysis. The proposed emergent constraints are mostly associated with thermodynamics (atmospheric moisture changes), with limited contribution from dynamics (atmospheric circulation variations). This constraining framework has various advantages, including lower observation uncertainty, and more robust theoretical interpretation than previously suggested constraints for extreme precipitation frequency projections. CMIP6 models generally overestimate historically observed warming, which resultantly generates weaker extreme precipitation intensification following constraining analysis than unconstrained model simulation projections from the global to individual continents, and even several mid- and high-latitude sub-continental areas. Additionally, constrained projections exhibit narrower uncertainty ranges in future extreme precipitation projections. During the late 21st century (2070–2099), under the high-emission scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5–8.5, characterized by fossil fueled development and a radiative forcing of 8.5 W m⁻² in 2100), our results present reduced global average intensity and uncertainty for future annual maximum daily precipitation intensification by 25% and 27%, respectively.

全球变暖导致的极端降水加剧受到广泛关注；然而，即使在给定的温室气体排放路径下，未来会发生多大的变化仍然存在很大的不确定性。与从全球到大陆尺度以及几个次大陆地区的原始/无约束模型模拟预测相比，我们的约束分析提供了更小的未来极端降水强度，并降低了不确定性。气候模型模拟中的历史变暖趋势表明，从全球到大陆尺度，模型间与未来年度最大日降水强度之间存在强烈的正相关性。这种涌现的关系用于约束分析。提出的紧急约束主要与热力学（大气湿度变化）有关，动力学（大气环流变化）的贡献有限。该约束框架具有多种优点，包括观测不确定性较低，以及比之前建议的极端降水频率预测约束更稳健的理论解释。CMIP6模型普遍高估了历史上观测到的变暖，从而导致在约束分析后产生的极端降水强度比无约束模型模拟预测的从全球到个别大陆，甚至几个中高纬次大陆地区的预测要弱。此外，受限预测在未来极端降水预测中表现出更窄的不确定性范围。21世纪末（2070-2099），在高排放情景下（共享社会经济路径5-8.5，其特征是化石燃料发展和2100年8.5 W m -2 的辐射强迫），我们的结果显示全球平均水平^下降未来年最大日降水强度和不确定性分别增加 25% 和 27%。