When do people make optimistic forecasts about goal adherence? Nine preregistered studies find that a recent streak of goal-consistent behavior increases the predicted likelihood that the individual will persist, compared to various other patterns holding the rate of goal adherence constant. This effect is due to perceiving a higher level of commitment following a streak. Accordingly, the effect is larger when the behavior requires commitment to stick with it, compared to when the same behavior is enjoyable in its own right. Furthermore, the effect is weaker in the presence of another diagnostic cue of commitment: when the individual has a high historic rate of goal adherence. People also behave strategically in ways consistent with these inferences (e.g., are less likely to adopt costly goal support tools following a streak, choose partners with recent streaks for joint goal pursuit). Together, these results demonstrate the significance of streaky behavior for forecasting goal adherence.

人们什么时候会对目标的遵守做出乐观的预测？九项预先注册的研究发现，与保持目标坚持率恒定的其他各种模式相比，最近的目标一致行为增加了个体坚持下去的预测可能性。这种效应是由于在连续一段时间后感受到更高水平的承诺。因此，与同样的行为本身令人愉快时相比，当该行为需要承诺坚持下去时，效果更大。此外，在存在另一个承诺诊断线索的情况下，效果会较弱：当个人具有较高的历史目标遵守率时。人们的战略行为方式也与这些推论一致（例如，在连续得分后不太可能采用昂贵的目标支持工具，选择最近有过共同目标追求的合作伙伴）。总之，这些结果证明了不稳定行为对于预测目标遵守情况的重要性。